OPEC’s Price War with Saudi Arabia Threatens to Hurt Both Sides

The oil cartel is signaling that it is willing to let prices fall further in order to pressure Saudi Arabia to comply with production cuts. This could lead to a prolonged period of low oil prices, or it could force Saudi Arabia to change its behavior.

John D. Kiambuthi
3 min readJun 6, 2023

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is signaling that it is willing to let oil prices fall further in order to pressure Saudi Arabia to comply with production cuts.

Photo by Maria Lupan on Unsplash

OPEC and its allies, including Russia, agreed in December to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in order to support prices. However, Saudi Arabia has been exceeding its production quota, which has led to a decline in oil prices.

OPEC is now sending a message to Saudi Arabia that it is willing to let prices fall even further if Saudi Arabia does not comply with the production cuts. This is a risky move for OPEC, as it could lead to a prolonged period of low oil prices.

“OPEC is signaling that it is willing to let prices fall further in order to pressure Saudi Arabia to comply with production cuts,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets. “This is a risky move for OPEC, but it is a sign that the cartel is determined to get Saudi Arabia to play ball.”

However, OPEC is hoping that this will force Saudi Arabia to change its behavior. Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil producer, and its production decisions have a major impact on global oil prices.

If Saudi Arabia continues to exceed its production quota, it could lead to a price war between OPEC and Saudi Arabia. This would be bad for both sides, as it would lead to lower oil prices and lower profits for both OPEC and Saudi Arabia.

“Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil producer, and its production decisions have a major impact on global oil prices,” said Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital. “If Saudi Arabia continues to exceed its production quota, it could lead to a price war between OPEC and Saudi Arabia. This would be bad for both sides, as it would lead to lower oil prices and lower profits for both OPEC and Saudi Arabia.”

It is still too early to say what will happen. However, it is clear that OPEC is willing to take a tough stance against Saudi Arabia. This could lead to a prolonged period of low oil prices, or it could force Saudi Arabia to change its behavior.

Conclusion

OPEC is signaling that it is willing to let prices fall further in order to pressure Saudi Arabia to comply with production cuts. This is a risky move for OPEC, but it is a sign that the cartel is determined to get Saudi Arabia to play ball.

The outcome of this standoff is still uncertain. However, it is clear that OPEC is willing to take a tough stance against Saudi Arabia. This could lead to a prolonged period of low oil prices, or it could force Saudi Arabia to change its behavior.

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John D. Kiambuthi
John D. Kiambuthi

Written by John D. Kiambuthi

Corporate Finance & Securities Analyst stuck between a bull and a bear. Finding balance between risk & reward in a chaotic market. Humorous approach to finance.

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